I’m sure you’re all familiar with the law of averages. Quite some time back a very optimistic Swiss mathematician named Jacob Bernoulli postulated that there existed a more or less predictable ratio between the number of random trials of an event and its occurrences. Nobody really cared what old Bernoulli said at the time and it was up to his cult fan base to re-package his theory for commercial consumption by adding a bit of pizzazz to it. Thus, the “law of averages” was born and it holds that probability will influence all occurrences in the long term or, simply put, in the long term things will even out and the unlikeliest of outcomes will occur.
This is the principal security that the Pakistan team will put its stock in as it enters Australia after almost five years for what should be a grueling tour. It’s way past time the law of averages kicked in and helped eradicate a particularly embarrassing losing trend.
Here’s a sorry stat for you: in the last 15 years Australia have beaten us in every test series we’ve played against them. In fact, in the last 10 years, Pakistan has played Australia thrice in three-test series and lost three-nil every time. That is beyond painful. I suppose one can sort of take comfort from the fact that those 10 years were the golden years of Australian cricket. But still, come on! Give us an unattractive draw at the very least. But the Australians were comprehensive in their triumphs. 3-0 thrashings were dished out like Christmas dinners.
Sure, we had a couple of chances here and there. In the second test in 1999, Inzimam’s batting and Saqlain’s off-spin came together to give us a realistic chance of clawing our way back into the series after we set Australia a more than formidable target of 369. But it wasn’t to be as Langer and Gilchrist denied us brilliantly. In 2002, in one of the all time greatest exhibitions of pure lethal fast bowling, Shoaib Akhtar ripped apart the best batting line-up of his generation and gave us an outside chance of a surprise victory. Hell, even Faisal Iqbal went berserk in that match, toying with Warne as if the latter was Arshad Khan, leading us to believe that the law of averages was already at work if Iqbal was making runs.
But it was all for naught as normal service was resumed in our second innings where we collapsed from 200 for 4 to 259 for 9. And there was an element of inevitability in the most recent whitewash. Shoaib returned again to terrorise Mathew Hayden and Pakistan had a few faintly promising sessions in all three tests. But with an otherwise weak bowling attack and without our captain and batting talisman Inzimam, we were always looking down the barrel and the Aussies were only too happy to pull the trigger.
Yep, it’s been 15 long years and don’t let anyone fool you into thinking it hasn’t taken a toll on our cricketing psyche. Did you ever have the kind of mother who exhorted that winning or losing didn’t matter but it was all about how you play the game or something lame to that effect? Well, I’m betting she probably told you that after you lost or established a steady pattern of losing. Believe me, while you were getting pearls of wisdom, the kid who beat you was being drowned in chocolate bars and trumpeted around the neighborhood in his brand new bike.
Winning matters – it’s that simple. It gives you the confidence you need to rack up more wins. You can learn from a loss or two, but a stream of failures robs you of momentum and creates doubts and questions in your mind which shouldn’t exist. If you can’t get a monkey off your back, it begins to consume you.
This particular Australian breed of monkey has been gnawing away at our confidence for 15 years. Enough is enough. Bernoulli’s mumbo-jumbo is ripe for fruition. The stars have aligned. If you consider the teams on paper and current form, the variables couldn’t be better suited for the law to kick in. We have the bowlers. We have the batsmen (Akmal brothers and Yousuf if he mans up). A lot of people have been murmuring about how this may be the best opportunity to beat the Australians. You can’t help but note the fact that if the West Indies took them all the way in the second test, we should at the very least be able to better that.
But the Australians are nothing if not professional. A few months back we faced what was perhaps the weakest Australian ODI side in recent history in what were practically home conditions. Everyone was expecting a routing by Pakistan but we lost the series to a side which was willing to forego individual flair for workman-like efficiency. The Australians have now realised that they have limits and are willing to work within them. The flip side for us is that we’re reliant on players like Mohammad Aamer and Umar Akmal who are young and have no idea about their limitations due to their innate brilliance.
Should we urge them to play within themselves or do we risk sacrificing the very exuberance and bravado which sets them apart and may translate to an edge over the Australians? It’s a tough call. I’d personally want the Pakistan team to play the brand of cricket which we’re known for – an intoxicating mix of aggression, style and impulse. But then how painful would it be to see Umar flash outside the off-stump to a rising Mitchell Johnson delivery and thereby cost us the series. I don’t think I can handle another defeat. Let’s hope we won’t have to.
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